Bespoke greenfield and growth commercial modelling for district heating networks

With district heating expected to play a leading role in the UK's net-zero strategy, investors and energy service companies are increasingly looking at greenfield opportunities. At Amberside Advisors, we specialise in providing commercial and financial advisory services, leveraging bespoke financial models that empower clients to navigate this growing market with confidence.

We understand that district heating networks are complex, multi-phase projects that require highly tailored financial and commercial modelling to ensure their success. Our approach goes beyond template-based solutions - we create bespoke models that align with our clients’ unique needs, ensuring they have the right tools to make informed decisions.

Tailored modelling for maximum insight

One of our key differentiators is the focus on creating a comprehensive specification for the model before development begins. This ensures that the model is purpose-built for the specific client and specific project, rather than relying on generic templates that may not fully capture the intricacies of the district heating scheme or necessarily highlight the relevant metrics for our client’s decision makers. By taking the time to align with the client’s needs from the outset, we ensure a robust and transparent modelling process.

Commercial understanding & critical assumption testing

Our team brings extensive experience in the UK district heating market, providing more than just data input. We apply a critical eye to all key assumptions, challenging inputs where necessary to ensure they are commercially sound and aligned with real-world market conditions. This approach strengthens the credibility of the model and supports more accurate forecasting.

Multi-phase and cluster-based modelling

District heating projects often evolve in phases and across multiple clusters that are built out over several years and often non-linear in their growth. Our models are built with the flexibility to accommodate this complexity, allowing inputs and outputs to be adjusted both globally and at a cluster or phase level. This granular approach provides deeper insights and helps clients make strategic decisions throughout the project lifecycle.

Seamless integration with existing techno-economic models

We recognise the importance of consistency and integration when working with existing client models. Our models are designed to integrate seamlessly with previous techno-economic assessments, ensuring a smooth transition, simplifying updates to technical assumptions and avoiding the need for extensive rework.

Bespoke commercial dashboards & shareholder reporting

Understanding financial viability at both a project-wide and cluster-specific level is crucial. We develop bespoke commercial dashboards tailored to each client’s reporting needs. These dashboards include key financial metrics, project performance indicators, and customisable outputs, ensuring that board members and stakeholders have clear, actionable insights.

Scenario & sensitivity analysis

Given the dynamic nature of district heating networks, our models are designed to accommodate a wide range of scenarios and sensitivities. We provide the flexibility to test various financing structures, macroeconomic assumptions, price curves, and other critical variables. This allows our clients to assess risks effectively and make data-driven decisions under different market conditions.

Adapting to a spectrum of input data

Whether working with granular, connection-by-connection data or overarching estimates across clusters, our models are adaptable to different levels of input detail. This flexibility ensures that clients can use available data effectively while still benefiting from sophisticated forecasting and scenario planning.

Why choose Amberside Advisors?

By choosing Amberside Advisors, clients gain access to a team with deep sector expertise, a commitment to precision, and the ability to deliver models that drive project success. Whether planning a new district heating network or expanding an existing one, our tailored financial and commercial modelling approach provides the clarity needed to make confident investment decisions.

If you would like to learn more about our district heating modelling capabilities, get in touch with our team today.